San Diego State vs. UConn Sweet 16 pick and prediction for 3/28: Take the Aztecs and the points

San Diego State vs. UConn Odds

Thursday, March 28, 7:39 p.m. ET, TBS

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAB odds here.

San Diego State Aztecs

San Diego State is similar to last year's team, which pushed UConn deep into the second half. The Aztecs post the eighth-best defense in KenPom's Defensive Efficiency metric, which is nothing new for Brian Dutcher's teams. He's a brilliant defensive mind and regularly churns out top-10 defenses.

San Diego State excels at forcing tough shots, holding teams to 30.8% from 3 (23rd nationally) and 47% from inside the arc.

The constant is Jaedon LeDee, who got robbed of Mountain West Player of the Year. For my money, LeDee is the second-best interior player in college basketball, only behind the prestigious Zach Edey.

His impact is unmatched, and San Diego State wouldn't even be in the tournament without him. LeDee is SDSU's clear-cut go-to option. He fills the stat sheet, posting 21.5 points and 8.4 rebounds per night. He also has improved his perimeter game, shooting 45% from 3 with eight free-throw attempts per contest.

It won't come easy against the 7-foot defensive anchor Donovan Clingan, but LeDee won't avoid contact.

I have two huge concerns about San Diego State, and they feed into each other.

First, it's guard play. The Aztecs can beat anybody if the guard play is even remotely average. Lamont Butler and Darrion Trammell each average fewer than nine points and are shooting below 43% from the field and 33% from 3.

They just haven't scored efficiently, but in the Round of 32 win over Yale, they showed promise.

Trammell scored 18 points and Butler added nine points. Combining for 30 points would make a huge difference in this one, making UConn sweat and putting real game pressure on the Huskies.

Secondly, the Aztecs are one of the worst shooting teams in Sweet 16, connecting on 31.8% from 3. They'll need an anomaly shooting game against the best team in college hoops.

Connecticut Huskies

The question of the year: Will UConn become the first repeat champion since Florida in the mid-2000s?

So far, it looks highly possible, as the Huskies dominated Stetson and Northwestern to two no-sweat covers in the first two rounds.

The Huskies don't rely on a single player like San Diego State does. However, the sum of their parts outweighs anything one star could bring to Dan Hurley's team. Each of UConn's five starters average 10.8+ points per game and four shoot 47% or better from the field.

If you can denote anybody as a "star," it's Tristen Newton. He can score, but he only hits 42% of his shots and 32% from 3. While he's not an efficient scorer, Newton impacts the team with his rebounding, passing and unselfish style.

The Aztecs didn't have the length to keep Newton in check last year, and that could be a similar problem this year, with most of the same roster returning.

UConn's offense flows incredibly well, with crisp ball movement. The team knows where the ball should go on each possession. Dan Hurley's offense ranks second nationally in efficiency, shooting 59% from 2-point range.

Keep an eye on the shooters, Alex Karaban and Cam Spencer. Both shoot well over 40% from deep, and UConn is one of the best 2-point scoring offenses because of the gravity of their shooting abilities.

You'll get plenty of one-on-one scoring chances when two shooters run the perimeter looking for an inch of space.

San Diego State vs. UConn

Betting Pick & Prediction

UConn won't steamroll San Diego State like Stetson and Northwestern.

I've seen some of the Aztecs' best basketball in the past two games, and catching double-digit points seems a bit hefty.

KenPom agrees too, projecting SDSU to lose by eight, so you can catch three points of value with the underdog.

I'm going with the Aztecs.

Pick: San Diego State +11 (Play to +9.5)