NCAAB odds, pick: Villanova vs. Marquette betting guide for Thursday, March 14

Villanova vs. Marquette Odds

Thursday, March 14, 9:30 p.m. ET, FS1

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAB odds here.

Villanova Wildcats

It's an interesting and trying time for Villanova fans. Gone are the days when Jay Wright was figuring things out and willing Nova to lengthy NCAA tournament runs.

We saw how inconsistent Nova's offense is during the one-point win over 3-29 DePaul. The Wildcats' offense ranks 86th in efficiency, the worst mark for the program since 2012-13. It's been a real struggle for a team known for elite offensive output.

Kyle Neptune didn't alter Wright's offensive style — they're still spacing the floor and attempting 3s on 47% of field goals.

The problem? Villanova shoots only 34% from 3, despite taking triples on nearly half of its field goals.

The best Villanova teams had a bonafide stud point guard who could play off two feet and own the paint. That guy doesn't exist this year, as Mark Armstrong is inconsistent and Justin Moore still looks less than 100%.

Eric Dixon is the saving grace for Nova's sputtering offense. Dixon leads the team with 16 points per game, with efficient splits of 47% from the field and 36% from 3. Neptune runs the offense through Dixon and looks to involve him in late-game situations, which shows he's trusted.

Shockingly, the Wildcats' defense is one of the best in America. Neptune's squad ranks 14th nationally in Defensive Efficiency, and opponents attempt 3s on 45% of their field goals. That amount of 3s leads to some potential variance, so Nova's defense will look different from the Iowa State's or Houston's of the world.

The differences lie in the 3-point shooting volume and Nova's lack of on-ball pressure. It'll look to drain the clock and force late-clock shots instead of increasing the tempo.

Marquette Golden Eagles

On Marquette's side, star guard Tyler Kolek remains out for the conference tournament. His status isn't clear for the NCAA tournament, but I'm sure he'll return by then.

Marquette is 1-2 without Kolek, beating Xavier on Saturday. Kolek's absence allowed

Kam Jones to step into a larger offense role, which he's shined in so far. Jones is known for his shooting prowess, and he's averaging 16 points on 50% shooting and 41% from downtown. Jones scored 30 points against Xavier, while showing off playmaking chops with nine assists compared to only two turnovers.

He operated as Marquette's point guard and didn't panic late in the game when Xavier pressured the ball. Instead, Jones rose to the occasion.

The Golden Eagles' offense relies on ball screens featuring Kolek and Oso Ighodaro, so the dynamic changes without Kolek. Marquette still cracked over 1.00 PPP in the past three games, so it's not like the offense is a total nightmare without its go-to point guard.

Moreover, Marquette's defensive pressure won't scare Villanova's offense much, as the Wildcats are turning the ball over on 16% of their possessions. The best-case scenario for Marquette is putting a strong contest on 3s while attacking the hoop on the offensive end by using its superior athleticism.

Villanova vs. Marquette

Betting Pick & Prediction

I'm terrified of what I saw from Villanova in the win over DePaul. The Wildcats nearly lost to the No. 316 team in KenPom, which is behind Bellarmine and Charleston Southern.

That's akin to buy-game teams Villanova nearly lost to.

When the outside shots don't fall for Villanova, it can lose to anybody in the country.

Marquette scored 80+ points against Nova's regularly dominant defense in the first two meetings. Marquette could still slice and dice Villanova's defense even without Kolek.

Jones and Ighodaro should pick up the slack for Kolek.

I'm going with Shaka here in the clear coaching mismatch.

Pick: Marquette -2.5 (Play to -5.5)