NCAAB odds, pick: Houston vs. UCF betting guide for Wednesday, March 6

Houston vs. UCF Odds

Wednesday, March 6, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN+

Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAB odds here

Houston Cougars

The Cougars uncharacteristically allowed 85 points, a season high, in their most recent game against the Sooners. They have Kansas on deck, but this is a great matchup in which to bounce back defensively.

Despite the poor defensive effort on Saturday, the Cougars are still the number one team in the nation in defensive efficiency.

Although they are the more talented squad, this won't an easy matchup for the offense. Houston is 13th in adjusted offensive efficiency, but UCF has an elite defensive unit.

Both offenses operate at a slow pace and it'd be stunning if these teams light up the scoreboard.

Guard Jamal Shead would be the national player of the year if Zach Edey didn't exist. Shead is capable of carrying the Cougars offense in any matchup, even against the Knights.

I am hesitant to back the Cougars because they have Kansas on deck, but there is no reason why they can't replicate their defensive performance from their first matchup against the Knights. Even if the Knights lack effort, the pace of this game will be too slow for it to turn into a track meet.

UCF Knights

The Knights' anemic offense was responsible for their downfall this season. They have poor percentages in both 2- and 3-point shots, as well on free-throw attempts. The Knights have the worst offense in the Big 12 and rank last in almost every category, including offensive turnover percentage, field goal percentage, offensive rebound percentage and adjusted offensive efficiency.

The Cougars held them below 45 points in their first matchup for a reason. Despite the usual bounce back after a poor performance, it's hard to back the Knights to be motivated throughout this game.

The Cougar's struggles on defense in their most recent game might give the Knights a chance, but the slow offenses and strong defenses will make it tough to score in this game. If the Cougars are held at bay throughout the contest, the Knights might pull off a miracle upset.

However, due to their poor offense, it's hard to believe they'll sustain enough success to pull off a big home upset.

Houston vs. UCF

Betting Pick & Prediction

It's tough to dissuade me from betting on a Houston under and I like it here. In the previous matchup between these teams, I made my best bet on the Knights, predicting that they'd score fewer than 55.5 points. They flew well under their team total and scored 42.

Regardless, I still think the full game under is the way to go here, even if the Cougars defense isn't quite as suffocating as before. The Knights defense, while perhaps unenthused and lackadaisical, is still elite enough to contain the Cougars offense.

Additionally, while I'm fond of the Cougars offense, they're coming off an 87-point performance, and we should anticipate some regression. Let's also take into account that they have Kansas on deck and could be looking ahead a bit.

Pick: Under 130 (Bet to 128)