NCAA Tournament odds: Who's the best bet in each region?

East Region

No. 1 seed:  Purdue won both the Big Ten regular season and tournament after holding off Penn State, 67-65, on Sunday. Purdue was the No. 1 team in the country for some time after starting the season 13-0 and 22-1, but as expected, they've had to grind their way through the Big Ten. Purdue has a lot of blowout wins this season -- 17 wins by 10 or more points -- but they've started to win those close games now. Few teams have had an answer for Big Ten Player of the Year Zach Edey. The 7-foot-4, 305-pound center has been nearly impossible to stop. However, the East is full of good teams like Marquette, Kansas State and Tennessee, so the Boilermakers are far from a lock to get to the Final Four.
 
Potential first-round upset: It's been a disappointing year for Tom Izzo and the Spartans. Expectations were high and Michigan State hasn't lived up to them. Would a deep tournament run make up for that? Absolutely. But we just don't see that happening. MSU was lucky to get a seven seed, and due to their inconsistency, we're not so sure they even win their first-round matchup against Southern Cal. Tenth-seeded USC has some size and we're willing to risk a few dollars on the Trojans (+110) to pull off the upset.
 
Dark horse: Probably not much of a surprise but Duke is the answer. Jon Scheyer's Blue Devils are playing their best ball of the season after winning the ACC Tournament on Saturday, and all we have to say to the rest of the teams in this region is ... look out. Duke has won nine straight and is more than capable of advancing to the Final Four. The Blue Devils have no true "easy game" but we're not sure anyone is hotter than Duke.

Our East region winner: No, we're not taking another No. 1 seed but we're also not taking Duke. Every year it seems like Duke finds their way to the Final Four, but we like Marquette (+420) to come out of the East. The Golden Eagles crushed Xavier in the Big East Tournament title game and have won nine straight and 13 of 14. Marquette almost took down Purdue back in November and are a top 10 team in the country for a reason. Expect some hard-fought wins but Marquette is our pick.

Midwest Region

No. 1 Seed: Houston is the No. 1 seed in the Midwest and though they're not the top overall seed, they're the betting favorite at 5/1. Houston could potentially face Auburn in the second round and Indiana in the Sweet 16, but we're a long way from all that. The Cougars (31-3) cruised to an American Athletic Conference regular-season title before losing to Memphis in the AAC Tournament finals. If Houston makes it out of the Midwest region, and that's a big if, they'll have a chance to win the whole thing at the FInal Four . . . in Houston.
 
Potential first-round upset: Iowa is seeded higher than Auburn and we don't know why. The Hawkeyes have quality wins over Indiana (twice), Indiana and Northwestern but they have a fair share of bad losses too. Meanwhile, Auburn has struggled after starting the year 8-0, but they do have talent. And in this case, we think they have more talent than Iowa.  

Dark horse: Penn State nearly took down Purdue to win the Big Ten title and yes, we know they're a 10 seed, but they're more than capable of beating Texas A&M in the first round, and maybe even beating No. 2 seed Texas. PSU has some bad losses, but they also have high-quality wins over Indiana, Illinois, Northwestern and Maryland. If Penn State gets hot offensively, they are a legit threat.

Our Midwest region winner: The Big Ten didn't overwhelmingly impress us this year, so that right there should tell you we don't see one of the three Big Ten teams -- Indiana, Iowa or Penn State -- make their way out. Houston has been one of the best teams in college basketball all year long and losing to Memphis in the AAC Tournament title game doesn't change that. Houston's (+120) line to win this region isn't great but it's good enough for us, and it should be for you as well.

West Region

No. 1 Seed:  Head coach Bill Self is back for Kansas. That's the good news. The bad news is they just got smoked by Texas in the Big 12 Tournament finals and are more than beatable. We learned that after the Jayhawks lost three straight games back in January. Granted, all three losses were to top-25 teams, but that's still concerning.  A Sweet 16 appearance is no guarantee, and with a line slightly better than 3/1 to represent the West in the Final Four, you better think really hard before putting any big money on Kansas.

Potential first-round upset: This is the toughest region to pick a first-round upset, and to be honest, we're not so sure there will be one. But if we had to pick, we'd go with the play-in winner between Arizona State and Nevada. One of these two teams will be the 11 seed in the West and face off against sixth-seeded TCU in the first round. TCU has high quality wins over Kansas, Baylor, and Kansas State, but they also have some bad losses to teams like Northwestern State and Oklahoma State.  

Dark horse:   Gonzaga has one of the best players in college basketball in Drew Timme, and the Bulldogs certainly have the experience. It's shocking Gonzaga had to share the West Coast Conference regular- season title with Saint Mary's. However, the Bulldogs did blow them out in the WCC Tournament title game. It looks like Gonzaga has turned the corner after losing by double digits to both Texas and Purdue during non-conference play, and with a line of 4/1 to win the West, we're tempted to bet at least some money.
 
Our West region winner: You already know we're not taking Kansas here, so where does that leave us? No. 2 UCLA, No. 3 Gonzaga, No. 4 UConn or maybe even No. 5 St. Mary's? All are capable of winning this region. This is a really tough call but we're going to go with Gonzaga. Every year it seems like more and more pundits say this is the year Mark Few gets to the top of the mountain, but this very well could be. Considering how deep the West is, it might not be a bad idea to put a little bit of money on three or four teams to get to the Final Four out of this region to guarantee yourself at least a small profit -- that is assuming one of four picks does get to the Final Four.