NBA Draft: Reed Sheppard or Dalton Knecht

The 2024 NBA Draft is quickly approaching as we are only four months away from the June 26 Draft night. The 2024 version of this draft has been a crap shoot for the most part. Players have still not sorted themselves into consensus tiers. As the season wears on, more questions arise than answers. This year, more than any other, NBA front offices will have to rely on their scouting eyes, dive into their philosophy and identity, and take what they see as its best fit. 

The 2024 NBA Draft is void of top-tier stars. Some NBA scouts I have spoken with have questioned whether they would take any of the players projected to go No. 1, in the top ten of previous draft classes. Sure that seems a little extreme, but that is the reality of where things currently are. 

Drawing on the philosophical aspect that this year’s NBA Draft will feature, I thought it would be fun to go through different sets of positionally similar players, with one being a one-and-done and the other a college veteran. Traditionally, in years past, NBA teams have opted to go young, take the one-and-done prospect, and groom them in the organization. However, the 2023 high school class (the crop of 2024 NBA Draft one-and-done prospects) is down. And with the NBA looking for players they can plug and play to contribute now. Looking at various one-and-done prospects versus older players will come up at the war room table. 

I was talking with an NBA scout last week, and these two players came up. It posed an interesting thought process for me because, while they are similar in position, their play styles and archetypes are very different. Dalton Knecht is much more of an alpha contributor, while Reed Sheppard is much more of a secondary connector. This conversation was the genesis of this project, so why not start with these two players?

Sheppard, a freshman, will be 20 years old on 2024 NBA Draft night and Knecht, a fifth-year senior, will be 23.

Reed Sheppard, the one-and-done

One year ago, Reed Sheppard was not talked about as a one-and-done prospect. In fact, many Kentucky fans were asking if Sheppard would even contribute to their Wildcats. Sheppard had a storied high school career, winning Kentucky Mr. Basketball as a senior and being named a McDonald’s All-American. 

He entered college as the fifth-highest-ranked member of an eight-man freshman class class. Sheppard was ranked outside of the top 20 by all four major recruiting services. He quickly jumped on the scene this season with his shooting. He is still over 50 percent from three on the season. But his counting stats also proved to be eye–opening.

Sheppard’s 2.7 steals currently leads the SEC, and he is averaging 5.8 assists per 40 minutes played. Sheppard’s big plays stand out when watching the game. He had some people in the NBA Draft community vocalizing their thoughts about him as possibly the top overall prospect in this draft class. 

Since his early start, some of Sheppard’s questions have persisted. While being an opportunistic off-ball defender, he has gotten beat off the bounce a good bit when guarding the ball. He can also be out of position as a team defender when guarding off the ball. Fighting through screens has also been an issue with him. Which is not a surprise for a player listed at less than 180 pounds. 

Sheppard has shown in SEC play that he does not put much pressure on the rim, and with that when he does get into the teeth of the defense he can become turnover-prone. In SEC play, Sheppard is shooting 42.9 percent from two. And in the five games he has started this season – which were all while DJ Wagner was either out or coming back from injury – Sheppard has averaged 3.4 turnovers. 

Sheppard has been at his best as a connector. Playing off the paint touches that Wagner and fellow freshman Robert Dillingham consistently create. From there he knocks down open looks or moves the ball and relocates. The Kentucky freshman has also been at his best defensively when Wagner has guarded the point-of-attack and he has been allowed to roam on the defensive end. 

Sheppard’s natural feel for the game is hard to ignore. His skill base and IQ keep him on the floor, along with his floor spacing. He has the rare capability of being someone who can elevate the play of others around him. Especially if the others are already elite players. 

Shooting 51.4 percent from three on 109 attempts through 27 games is so impressive. 

Dalton Knecht has dominated one of college basketball’s toughest conferences

At the beginning of the season, no one was talking about Dalton Knecht as a sure-fire NBA Draft prospect. Even if he had proven to be good every step of the way. Knecht entered the transfer portal, as a graduate transfer, after averaging 20.2 points at Northern Colorado last season.

After entering, Big Sky players and coaches alike echoed to me that Knecht was the best NBA prospect in their league. Even with that, rarely do players transfer up in level, and still produce at the same rate they did at the lower level. Knecht has, and then some.

He is currently averaging 20.1 points and 5.0 rebounds while raising his assist total to 2.0 and shooting 40.3 percent, up from last season’s 38.1, at Tennessee. Against the length and athleticism in the SEC, Knecht has shown that he can create an advantage off the bounce, and score from each level on the court.

He is efficient in his movements and consistent with his jump shot, playing with great balance and confidence. Knecht attacks the paint with a purpose and is able to absorb contact while finishing at or above the rim. He has efficient counters – albeit not the most flashy handle – when his driving lanes are cut off and he can pull up for mid-range jump shots.

Knecht also has optimal positional size. According to NBA.com at the start of the 2023-24 NBA season, the average height for NBA players was 6-foot-6.5 and the average weight was 215.3. Knecht is listed at 6-foot-6 and 213 pounds.

Knecht’s defense is a weak point. He has the physical tools and he gives effort, but he can be a half-step slow when guarding the ball and can lose concentration when guarding off the ball. While Knecht can play above the rim in traffic, he does rely some on his physical strength as he lacks immediate burst. He is crafty and uses good pace and footwork to get to his spots.

Knecht is an offensive weapon, and his ability to play off others, or create an upper hand with the ball is very intriguing.

Sheppard vs. Knecht

What makes this duo so interesting when paired beside one another, is that in the same way that Dalton Knecht has been slowly climbing, as the season has continued, Reed Sheppard’s stock has been slowly dropping.

For Sheppard, the spot-shooting remains elite. So is his connecting ability, elevating the level of play of teammates when he is surrounded by other good players. He has proven to have good defensive instincts and his timing remains almost elite. Watching him play, you continue to ask, what is the archetype he falls under? Sheppard is listed at 6-foot-3 and 176 pounds, and he has not yet shown he can be a point guard. As an off-ball player, he does not put pressure on the rim or guard on the ball particularly well. 

Sheppard, given his age, is also able to go back to school, get stronger, and develop in all of these aspects. The natural tools he brings to the table are undeniable, and the questions can all be answered with growth.

Knecht has proven to be a high-level scorer, with the ability to knock down catch-and-shoot shots, while also creating for himself. He has good athleticism and a physical frame. He will also be one of the oldest players taken in this NBA Draft class.

His age could go either way under this circumstance. NBA teams will know what they are getting with him, and in the age of not wanting to develop players, and taking guys who can contribute now, Knecht is just that. However, his age also limits his ceiling. At 23 years old on opening night, Knecht has already developed to be a lot of what he is capable of. Despite his offensive prowess and all the success he has shown this season, will his defense allow him to be on the floor at the end of games?

Looking at both Sheppard and Knecht, there are clear advantages they bring to the table. They both also have questions. Given the landscape of this draft and the current philosophy of NBA teams, it will be interesting to see in what order these two go on NBA Draft night.