Maryland kicks off NCAA Tournament by holding off last-second West Virginia three

The result was a surprise to anyone who flipped channels to Furman's upset win over Virginia after Maryland struggled to get going on offense and fell down 16-4 with 11:13 remaining in the first half.

The team scraped by despite a slow start thanks in part to winning 50-50 balls, such as on this chaotic sequence in the second half that resulted in an easy dunk for Terrapins guard Hakim Hart.

The gritty comeback win isn't what's most surprising about this Maryland squad. No, that would be its spot as a dark-horse contender for the national title.

Advanced analytics suggest the Terrapins are one of six teams in play for the championship. 

Evan Miyakawa analyzed the Final Fours from the previous four tournaments and discovered a common thread among them. In what Miyakawa describes as a "kill shot," or a 10-0 run within a game, the previous four champions averaged greater than 0.65 kill shots per game while only conceding less than 0.3 10-0 runs per game.

It makes perfect sense why that factor would translate well to a single-elimination tournament. There's a finite number of possessions in a 40-minute game, and if a team is two to three times as likely to go on a 10-0 run than give one up in a game, that would greatly increase that team's chances of surviving and advancing.

Maryland was one of six teams to match those numbers during the season but curiously had no luck in that regard against West Virginia. The Terrapins allowed a 14-0 run — which turned an early 4-2 lead into a 16-4 deficit — and a 16-0 second-half run when the team saw a 38-31 lead erased and become a 47-38 advantage for the Mountaineers.

The opening-round win sets up a huge showdown in the second round should No. 1 overall seed Alabama beat No. 16 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. As Miyakawa's data shows, Alabama is another one of the six teams that fit the criteria of the past four national champions.

The Crimson Tide are a popular pick to win it all this year with the second-best odds in the 64-team field, per Oddschecker.

Maryland may have escaped its game against West Virginia by the skin of its teeth, but there's reason to believe the Terrapins can go a whole lot further.