Illinois vs. Iowa State Sweet 16 pick and prediction for 3/28: Illini needs to make threes

Illinois vs. Iowa State Odds

Thursday, March 28, 10:09 p.m. ET, TBS

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAB odds here.

Illinois Fighting Illini

Illinois has yet to play a notable team in the NCAA Tournament, but Illini fans deserved a break after some tough Round of 32 matchups in the past few years.

The Illini will have a tough challenge against one of the top defenses in the country. Iowa State is particularly sharp when it comes to turning teams over and boasts the second-best defensive turnover rate in the country.

Illinois used to turn the ball over much more than other teams, but the Illini actually have a better offensive turnover rate than Iowa State. The Illini don't force many turnovers, but if they can mitigate mistakes offensively, that'll take a huge portion of Iowa State’s offense away.

Illinois also takes far more 3s than the Cyclones. Both teams shoot above 35%, but Iowa State allows a ton of 3s on defense, while the Illini allow very few.

Illinois’ largest edge in this matchup could be rebounding, as Iowa State doesn't rank above 95th in offensive or defensive rebounding.

Meanwhile, Illinois ranks 16th offensively and 70th defensively.

As a result, the Illini should have plenty of put-back opportunities, as they hold a size advantage at almost every position.

Iowa State Cyclones

Iowa State has advanced to the Sweet 16 for a reason. This defense is filled with sharks who can force even the best offenses into poor situations.

Iowa State also can manufacture a plethora of baskets in transition. The Cyclones rank in the top 35 in transition offense, and Illinois isn't great at defending in transition.

That said, Terrence Shannon Jr. might be the best offensive transition threat in this game. If the Illini can get the ball into his hands on a fast break, Iowa State may be in trouble.

The rest of Iowa State’s offense is questionable. The Cyclones rank 90th in points per possession at the rim, while Illinois defends the interior well and ranks second in Rim-and-3 Rate.

Essentially, the Illini have what it takes to make Iowa State’s offense take poor shots.

Illinois vs. Iowa State

Betting Pick & Prediction

The Clones are the better defensive team in this game. However, Illinois has shown it can play defense, while Iowa State has only shown some glimmers of hope on offense.

Yes, the Cyclones defeated Houston handily in the Big 12 Championship, but Illinois’ offense can be an equalizer.

Look for Shannon to score in transition and for the Illini to get stops on the interior.

Illinois should also win the rebounding battle.

If Illinois can make some 3s, it'll win this game.

Pick: Illinois +1.5 (Play to PK)