Elite Eight best bets: Tennessee vs. Purdue odds, pick and prediction for Sunday, March 31

Tennessee vs Purdue Odds

Sunday, March 31, 2:20 p.m. ET, CBS

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAB odds here.

The Boilermakers may not be the most exciting watch for a neutral fan, but their combination of rebounding dominance, free-throw line control and 3-point shooting is ruthlessly efficient offensively. They enter the Eight Eight ranked third in Offensive Efficiency, per KenPom.

If there's a Purdue weakness, it's the Boilermakers' turnover margin.

Enter Tennessee, which withstood late comeback attempts from both Texas and Creighton in the last two rounds to advance to the final eight.

The Volunteers stumbled into the NCAA Tournament after losing to Kentucky and Mississippi State in their final two games — which likely cost them a No. 1 seed — but Tennessee's elite defense has shown out in the last three games.

Purdue won the first meeting between these two teams in the Maui Invitational in November by four points. It's now favorite by 3.5 on Sunday.

Tennessee Volunteers

Tennessee's offense was quite efficient running ball screens through Zakai Zeigler on Friday against Creighton's drop coverage. Between that and Dalton Knecht's jump shooting from off-ball screens, the Volunteers forced Greg McDermott to change defenses multiple times in the second half.

Tennessee can have similar success in this matchup, given that Purdue's mid-range defense is vulnerable with Edey also playing drop coverage like Creighton's Ryan Kalkbrenner.

The problem for Tennessee is that it's difficult for the Volunteers to use their normal pressure defense and physicality without getting into foul trouble against the Purdue free-throw machine.

The Boilermakers attempted 48 free throws in the first meeting in Maui, and while Tennessee has the depth in the frontcourt to throw a bunch of fouls at Edey, Tennessee won't be able to keep up offensively if Purdue is living at the charity stripe.

The main reason for optimism about Tennessee in this matchup is its ability to dominate shot volume and turnover margin. The biggest weakness Purdue has is its mediocre turnover margin, and it's a margin that's often spelt trouble for top seeds in the past — including Purdue last season against FDU.

Purdue's guards are much better equipped to handle pressure this year than last season, but constant ball pressure and elite perimeter defense is a staple for Tennessee. The Vols allow one of the lowest Open 3 Rates in the country and they have length and activity to throw at Smith, which can take Purdue's offense out of rhythm.

There's no way to stop Edey, but slowing down Purdue's 3-point barrage and stealing possessions via turnovers is about the only way to limit Purdue offensively.

Tennessee can do both more than anyone left on Purdue's half of the bracket.

Purdue Boilermakers

Purdue's offense has arguably the highest floor in the entire country because of its reliable rebounding and free-throw differentials.

When they also shoot 45% from 3 — as they did on Friday against Gonzaga — the Boilermakers are basically unstoppable.  If they do that again, they'll be advancing to the Final Four.

The defense is extremely passive, though, and doesn't force any turnovers, which can make them vulnerable when teams are making shots against them.

They're willing to surrender a ton of mid-range looks, and the Boilers' defense is considerably worse at defending the mid-range when Edey is on the court.

Knecht and Zeigler will need to be effective at pull-up jumpers and floaters, while the Vols need to threaten to grab offensive rebounds to keep Edey occupied on the glass.

Purdue struggles defensively against teams that take care of the ball, space the floor well and can hit perimeter and mid-range jump shots. The Boilers are 335th on defense in spacing allowed and 265th in shot making allowed, per ShotQuality.

Tennessee grades out as elite offensively in both categories, and Purdue showed in Big Ten play that it'll concede open 3-point attempts.

It's almost impossible to get to the rim against Purdue because of Edey, but Purdue is outside the top 100 in Open 3 Rate Allowed.

Tennessee vs. Purdue

Betting Pick & Prediction

The officiating is more key in this game than any of the other Elite Eight matchups. If the game is called as tight as the first meeting, it's difficult to see a path to Tennessee winning without very positive 3-point shooting variance.

But given that this is the NCAA Tournament and foul rates tend to decrease as game-meaning rises, a more physical matchup will level the playing field.

Tennessee has the shotmaking through its ball-screen offense to score enough, and it has the defensive ball pressure to take away open 3s and force enough turnovers to keep this within a possession.

I'd bet Tennessee at +3 or better.

Pick: Tennessee +3.5 or Better