College basketball pick and prediction for NC State vs. Duke for Thursday, March 14

NC State vs. Duke Odds

Thursday, March 14, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAB odds here.

Duke Blue Devils

Duke is coming off a gut-wrenching loss to heated rivals North Carolina in Durham. I wouldn't even say the Blue Devils played poorly. Some missed defensive assignments resulted in Cormac Ryan scoring 31 points, but UNC just outplayed the Blue Devils.

It happens sometimes, but now Duke must flip the page to the ACC tournament.

The Blue Devils boast one of the most explosive offenses in America, featuring the best guard trio in the sport: Tyrese Proctor, Jared McCain and Jeremy Roach.

Shooting is arguably Duke's biggest asset — all three guards shoot above 36% from 3, which is the primary reason for Duke's season-long 38% 3-point percentage.

The crazy thing? None of those names are Duke's best players, but Kyle Filipowski is. The versatile big man's shooting prowess allows Duke's offense to space the floor with the guards, and defenses have a tough time slowing down the shooting.

However, Filipowski is more than just a shooter.

My biggest qualm about Duke is its defense inside the arc. The numbers showcase the Blue Devils' issues stopping opponents from scoring 2s, ranking them 118th nationally in 2-point defense.

That's the downfall of playing two smaller guards like McCain and Roach together and not having a bruising big to anchor the paint.

Those interior defensive issues kept NC State within reach in the first meeting.

NC State Wolfpack

In the first meeting between the two, the Wolfpack used 27 points from DJ Burns Jr. to stay fairly close — until Duke's offense erupted.

Burns is a total force on the offensive end, thanks to his savvy footwork, soft touch and passing. He averages 12 points and 2.6 assists per game, but he doesn't add a lot of value on defense. Louisville played Burns off the court in the ACC tourney's first round; he played just 11 minutes.

Some good news in NC State's win over Cuse is DJ Horne returning from a hip injury. Horne leads the team in scoring and has earned All-ACC honors. He missed the Louisville game and scored 16 points in 19 minutes against the Orange.

The Wolfpack's offense stands a better chance of beating Duke with Horne in the fold, even at less than 100%.

NC State has struggled on defense all season, ranking 103rd in Defensive Efficiency. The Pack allowed 1.34 points per possession in their previous loss against Duke. Most of Duke's success came from 2-point range, only shooting 9-of-30 from 3.

Jayden Taylor is another player who could ease the scoring burden on Horne and Burns. The team doesn't have a ton of options, but those three are the players Kevin Keatts relies on.

After scoring over 1.10 points per possession in the past two games, will NC State have another offensive masterpiece up its sleeve?

NC State vs. Duke

Betting Pick & Prediction

NC State is playing its third game in three days, and now faces a well-rested Duke team.

That feels like a recipe for disaster.

The Wolfpack's legs have to start feeling shaky at some point, and the Blue Devils' outstanding offense should wear the Pack down.

Pick: Duke -10