Assessing best options for the final No. 1 seed of the men's NCAA Tournament

Come Selection Sunday, the committee will have to answer this question: Who will be the four No. 1 seeds?

Three of those spots appear to be locked up, as Houston, Purdue and UConn have created a bit of separation between themselves and the rest of the country. The trio occupy the top three slots in KenPom, Bart Torvik and the NET Rankings. In KPI, the Boilermakers and Cougars are the top two teams, with North Carolina, Tennessee, Arizona ahead of the Huskies (sixth). 

Who, then, will be the final top seed? That’s not so clear. In the meantime, let’s take stock of the teams in the running.

In order to make the list, a team needed to 1) be in the top 15 of all four aforementioned metrics and 2) have no more than seven losses. This was based on an analysis of No. 1 seeds dating back to 2014. 

Without further ado...

Arizona (21-6, 12-4 in the Pac-12)

Metrics: 4th in KenPom, 5th in Bart Torvik, 4th in NET, 5th in KPI

A metrics darling all season long, the Wildcats are likely the safest bet to be the final No. 1 seed. They are atop the Pac-12 standings, and could pull off the sweep at the conference tournament in Las Vegas. With a 7-3 record in Quadrant 1 games, that could get the job done.

Auburn (21-6, 10-4 in the SEC)

Metrics: 5th in KenPom, 4th in Bart Torvik, 7th in NET, 10th in KPI

Not a lot of elite wins, but those chances will come — starting with a Wednesday road date at Tennessee (more on the Vols in a second). The Tigers are just 2-6 in Quad 1 contests, so even with a win in Knoxville, they would likely need to capture the SEC title sweep to have a shot at being a No. 1 seed.

Tennessee (21-6, 11-3 in the SEC)

Metrics: 6th in KenPom, 6th in Bart Torvik, 5th in NET, 4th in KPI

Behind Arizona, this may be the most likely candidate to get the final slot. The Volunteers, led by flamethrower Dalton Knecht, are tied with Alabama for first place in the SEC. They are also 11-6 across the first two Quadrants.

Duke (21-6, 12-4 in the ACC)

Metrics: 8th in KenPom, 12th in Bart Torvik, 11th in NET, 15th in KPI

The Blue Devils’ chances start and end with winning out, which would include a Quad 1 win over North Carolina, Quadrant 2 wins over Virginia and NC State and three victories in the ACC Tournament in D.C. Even then, it’s not a slam dunk, but the Blue Devils are 6-3 in Quad 1.

North Carolina (22-6, 14-3 in the ACC)

Metrics: 9th in KenPom, 11th in Bart Torvik, 9th in NET, 3rd in KPI

Atop the ACC with three games remaining, the Tar Heels’ KPI rating (which only includes this season's results) dramatically outperforms the rest of their metrics. If North Carolina captures the outright regular-season title and wins the conference tournament, its resume — the Tar Heels are currently tied with Houston and Arizona for the third-most Quad 1 wins (seven) in the country — would be compelling.

Iowa State (21-6, 10-4 in the Big 12)

Metrics: 11th in KenPom, 7th in Bart Torvik, 8th in NET, 14th in KPI

One of just three teams to beat Houston this season— TCU and Kansas being the others — this season, the Cyclones are third nationally in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency rating. At 5-4 in Quad 1 games, Iowa State has some work to do to make it two No. 1 seeds from the Big 12 — but if it wins out and captures the Big 12 Tournament, then all bets are off.

Marquette (21-6, 12-4 in the Big East)

Metrics: 13th in KenPom, 10th in Bart Torvik, 12th in NET, 13th in KPI

Look, the criteria is the criteria. Xavier, a Big East team, was a No. 1 seed in 2017-18 despite being 15th in KenPom and 10th in Bart Torvik. With another chance against UConn (this time at home), and the Big East Tournament in Madison Square Garden, Marquette has a shot to make its case — however slim it may be.