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Feb 2, 2017; Houston, TX, USA; A general overall view of NRG Stadium with graphics featuring New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) and Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan (2) prior to Super Bowl LI. Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports

Why Super Bowl LI will be like the rest of the playoffs: bad

By Mike Tunison | Last updated 2/3/17

The 2016 NFL season was largely an underwhelming affair. The playoffs that followed, with the exception of one classic game, followed suit. The league needs more than a good Super Bowl, it needs a great one, a classic to belong to the ages, and needs it bad. Ratings are waning. Younger sports fans are growing indifferent to pro football, and the NBA is ascendant. Too bad this Super Bowl is probably going to stink.

The Atlanta Falcons undeniably have a great offense, as do the New England Patriots. The problem is the Falcons' defense is average at best. The Patriots’ D might be a little overhyped on account of playing a lot of mediocre quarterbacks during the regular season, so the fact that they allowed the fewest points in the league this season must be taken with just a granule of salt. Nevertheless, it’s the superior of the two units. And it’s led by a coach who knows how to crack down on opponents when it matters most.

New England proved in the AFC Championship Game against the Steelers that it could humble a top-flight offense. The Falcons will likely put up a better fight than Pittsburgh, what with Matt Ryan playing the best season of his career. The problem is Ryan will also needs to play the game of his life to both overcome the New England offense and an opportunistic defense.

Feb 1, 2017; Houston, TX, USA; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan (2) answers questions at a press conference for Super Bowl LI at Westin Houston Memorial City Hotel. Matthew Emmons/USA TODAY Sports

It’s possible, but hardly probable. The Falcons have been held in check when they’ve played great defenses this season. Sure, they beat the Broncos early in the season 23-16, but it’s hard to imagine the Falcons beating New England putting only 23 on the board. An Atlanta win will require a ridiculous shootout coupled with a timely turnover or two.

More likely than not, the Falcons will hang with the Patriots for three quarters, until the killer turnover happens late and the Patriots pull away. It will take an extraordinary set of circumstances for Atlanta to win. That may be the only case that the NFL gets the magnificent, heart-stopping Super Bowl that it craves.

Matt Ryan has been able to spread the ball around, so the Pats being able to shut down Julio Jones won’t affect them as much as it would other teams having their best skill player neutralized.

A big problem is that Atlanta has been just OK this year in close games. The Falcons were 4-4 in 2016 in games decided by one score. The Patriots, meanwhile, were 4-1 in such games. That means the Pats can handle a team playing its best and still find a way to win. And it’s important to remember that the Pats have only lost once since Tom Brady returned from suspension, and that was back in the middle of November.

More importantly than all that, only Eli Manning somehow can unlock the dark magic of the Patriots in the Super Bowl, and while Matt Ryan is almost as vanilla, he’s no Eli.

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