A 'Game of Thrones' is developing in the AL East race

September in the American League East resembling more of a season in "Game of Thrones" as opposed to an actual baseball game is nothing new. The division has long been the most competitive in the game, producing more wild card teams than any other division in the game since the three-division format began in 1996. In that same time span, only once has a team been able to win the division with less than 90 victories, and that team — the 2000 New York Yankees — went on to win the World Series. Each of its member teams has had a turn in winning the division since 2010, each averaging 95 wins in that season.

So with such competitive parity the norm in the AL East, it should be no surprise that pulling into the season’s final weeks there is plenty of business left to sort out in the division. It is the only division in baseball with four teams carrying 70 or more wins already. A difference of two games separates the top three teams in the race for the title, with the Boston Red Sox hanging on to a tight one-game lead, while fending off the Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles with both hands.

Not so far off are the New York Yankees, who sit 4.5 games out, which seems like an eternity in comparison. The only team that is truly out of the race is Tampa Bay, a team that's talented enough to play a strong spoiler role down the stretch due to its solid pitching.

What hairs at all can be split that could make the difference in how this race is decided? Each team boasts either an MVP candidate or has a hot hand to ride down the stretch. Mookie Betts and Josh Donaldson are locked head-to-head in an extremely tight MVP race, with Manny Machado likely to be a top finisher for the award as well. Gary Sanchez has been a lightning rod in New York since being promoted in August, while Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi have been two of the hottest pitchers in baseball over the last month. There is talent in spades, the type that can turn the competitive balance of the race on a pitch-to-pitch or at-bat-by-at-bat basis.

With plenty of divisional matchups looming in the season’s final few weeks, one thing is abundantly clear: The bloodshed that settles this season’s AL East race will be squarely settled on swords within the division.

If the postseason was to start today, three AL East teams would be involved, with the Blue Jays hosting the Orioles in a wild card play-in game matchup. The Blue Jays hold the slightest lead in the season’s head-to-head matchup, at nine games to seven. Meanwhile, the Red Sox would face former manager Terry Francona and the Cleveland Indians, against whom they carry a 4-2 series lead on this season.

Yet for the Red Sox to even advance to that point, they will have to directly survive the gauntlet of the AL East in more direct fashion than any other team. After wrapping up their series with the San Diego Padres on Wednesday, the Sox played their final non-AL East opponent of the season. Ahead lies a pair of series with each of their division rivals, highlighted by a 10-game road trip between Baltimore, Tampa Bay and New York, before mercifully coming home to face the Blue Jays in a series that could squarely settle the division.

Meanwhile, those same Blue Jays have a slightly lighter load to carry, as they get to make a mid-month spin versus the Rays before going west to face the Los Angeles Angels and Seattle Mariners.

The Orioles benefit from an 11-game home stand, where a four-game tilt with the Red Sox is sandwiched by very well-timed visits from the Rays and Arizona Diamondbacks. The O’s have owned the Rays this year, winning 11 out of 14, and have gone undefeated against them at Camden Yards.

At this point, enter the spoilers, of which the Yankees and Rays could prove to be the most pivotal pair of such teams in all of baseball. For all of Tampa’s struggles versus the Orioles, the Rays have had an opposite experience against the Blue Jays, against whom they have nine wins this year. So perhaps the Jays should consider themselves lucky that they are rid of them for the season after next Wednesday.

The Yankees have not been particularly good or overwhelmingly bad versus any of their in-division foes, which makes them perhaps the most pivotal team in the division. Lined with a number of young players fighting to make a name for themselves, they will play hard down the stretch. Their final three series of the season include a visit to Toronto, followed by hosting the Red Sox and Orioles. So in a way that goes against tradition — yet is still very relevant — how the Yankees go down the stretch could determine how the East goes.

But it all revolves around how the Red Sox, Blue Jays and Orioles react to this cocktail of experiences that awaits them. Looking at the head-to-head matchups, the road to claiming the division seems to be best lined for the Orioles to succeed, with the Blue Jays checking in just behind them. The Red Sox, on the other hand, have to trade nonstop blows within the division, while having only one off day remaining on their schedule. This is a gauntlet of a path that will test their mettle — in addition to their shaky bullpen.

In a matchup of teams so closely paired, it could be settled by simply who can best endure the others' best shots. The Red Sox have scored more runs than any other team in baseball, with 764. Can the combination of Betts’ MVP push, joined by David Ortiz’s final romp through an AL East September and the shot of life that baseball’s top prospect Yoan Moncada bring, be enough to let the Red Sox increase their lead? Pitching has been their problem, but David Price is finally bringing the game-changing performances he was paid handsomely for every time out, as he riding a six-game personal winning streak. Joining him is Rick Porcello, who is knocking on the door of his first 20-win season, as he has won eight of his last 10 starts.

Yet while the Boston offense has stayed hot, no starting staff has bested the Blue Jays’ 58 wins. The Jays get business done on the mound and pitch more innings than any other rotation. J.A. Happ and Aaron Sanchez have been the headline-grabbers, but Marcus Stroman has been much better over the last month than he has all season, right on time. Donaldson is in the midst of a strong campaign to defend his AL MVP award as well and is in sights of his second straight 40 home run year. He’s an elite difference maker in the game, capable of shaping the pennant chase with his bat alone.

So where does that leave the Orioles? They are not chock-full of MVP nor Cy Young contenders, but they have put the ensemble attack to work well yet again. It cannot be underestimated how favorable their schedule could be, as they carry the third best home record in the American League this year. Some favor from the schedule-making gods could serve them well and end up being a decisive advantage for Buck Showalter’s club.

It is only right that in the end it comes down to a triple-threat fight to the finish, with a bit of well-placed outside interference from other worthy AL East competitors that will sort out the last chapter in one of the tightest divisional rivalry runs in recent baseball history.