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Predicting the unpredictable: Your MTV VMAs rundown

Get your Twitter fingers ready, America — the MTV Video Music Awards are fast approaching and will air Sunday, Aug. 28 from New York City. And so, as comes with anticipation for any awards show: people make subjective (and probably wrong) predictions for fun. I am about to be one of those people. 

But I’m going to start with the least subjective thing involved with this year’s VMAs, and that is Rihanna. Rihanna is set to accept the Michael Jackson Video Vanguard Award, which is described as an award given to artists as a lifetime achievement award to honor his or her body of work and for making a profound impact on MTV culture. Previous winners of this award include luminary icons such as Michael Jackson, Janet Jackson, Beastie Boys, Guns N’ Roses (still relevant, still on tour), Justin Timberlake, Beyonce and Kanye West. David Bowie won this award the first year it was given out alongside the Beatles, which undoubtedly calls for a special Bowie-MTV retrospective given his passing in January.

Rihanna’s performance at the show will also undoubtedly be a highlight. If you watched the 2016 Billboard Awards in May and saw Rihanna perform “Love On The Brain” you are hoping she performs that song on Sunday night. But Rihanna performing any song will do because Rihanna beholds a mystical power that allows everything she does or associates herself with to become desirable or enjoyable. See: Puma FurSlides and any performance Rihanna has ever done. 

The other non-negotiable highlight is going to be Britney Spears’s return to the VMA stage to perform the lead single “Make Me” with G-Eazy from her upcoming album Glory. Spears has not appeared on the VMAs since 2007. Spears is something of a VMAs legend — she kissed Madonna in 2003 and performed with a yellow boa constrictor in 2001. The VMA stage was the platform where music fans began to realize that Britney wasn’t quite... Britney anymore. Throughout those years, Spears was harassed for her tumultuous behavior more than anything else. Sunday’s performance should be Spears’s moment to show that Britney is back, healthier and better than ever.

And now, onto predicting the other categories. 

Best New Artist

Nominees: Bryson Tiller, Desiigner, DNCE, Lukas Graham, Zara Larsson

I have listened repeatedly to Tiller’s debut mixtape titled T R A P S O U L in all its smooth glory. Tiller is a SoundCloud product. His music is now the rare brand that gets radio play but doesn’t feel mainstream, and that’s why I believe he should win this award. His catalog as a whole is solid. That said, I think DNCE will win the award based on the fact that “Cake By The Ocean” is a more familiar tune bordering on insistent earworm. The same could be said for Graham’s song “7 Years,” Larsson’s “Never Forget You” or Desiigner’s “Panda,” —if these artists didn’t have at least one earworm, they wouldn’t be included in this category — but I’m banking on the Jonas factor here. 

Best Female Video
 

Nominees: Adele, “Hello”; Beyonce “Hold Up”; Sia, “Cheap Thrills”; Ariana Grande, “Into You”; Rihanna ft. Drake “Work” 

Strong category. My instinct is to say Adele just sold out eight-straight nights at Staples Center in Los Angeles; who is going to beat Adele and her worldwide hit “Hello”? But it feels insulting to say something so bold when Beyonce and Rihanna are in the same category, which is to say this is a complete toss-up. But if I have to take a guess, I go Adele based solely on the worldwide takeover that was “Hello.” 

Best Male Video

Nominees: Bryson Tiller, “Don’t”; Drake, “Hotline Bling”; Calvin Harris ft. Rihanna, “This Is What You Came For”; Kanye West, “Famous”; The Weeknd, “Can’t Feel My Face”

Well, if the Internet is any indication then Drake’s “Hotline Bling” music video was hate-watched more than anything. Google it. Watch the memes. Drake’s dancing was equally awful and amazing. This video was a gift, really. In that vein, it’s deserving of this award and is definitely a contender. It’s worth mentioning that these award shows are about chance and a “fan army” as much if not more than actual quality. With mentioning that, I don’t think Kanye’s “Famous” video and all of its naked elements stand a chance, and neither does Tiller. I’m banking on Drake and all of his memes here.

Best Hip Hop Video

Nominees: Drake, “Hotline Bling”; Desiigner, “Panda”; Bryson Tiller, “Don’t; Chance The Rapper ft. Saba, “Angels”; 2 Chainz, “Watch Out

See above explanation. (But I’m hoping the world pleasantly surprises me and gives Chance The Rapper what he deserves.)

Best Collaboration

Nominees: Beyonce ft. Kendrick Lamar, “Freedom”; Fifth Harmony ft. Ty Dolla $ign, “Work From Home”; Ariana Grande ft. Lil Wayne, “Let Me Love You”; Calvin Harris ft. Rihanna, “This Is What You Came For”; Rihanna ft. Drake, “Work” (short version)

Full disclosure: I want Beyonce and Kendrick will take this home. And that is not in any way a slight to any of the other nominees and their works. Outside of my own preferences, I think Rihanna and Drake are the frontrunners based solely on mass popularity, and the “Work” music video is quite awesome. It seems Rihanna and Drake are in the middle of a subtle tag-team world takeover, and the VMAs might be their not-so-subtle announcement of that.

Best Pop Video Nominees: Adele, “Hello”; Beyonce, “Formation”; Justin Bieber, “Sorry”; Alessia Cara, “Wild Things”; Ariana Grande, “Into You”

Bieber’s mammoth “Sorry” video has 1,748,943,568 views at the time I’m typing these words. I feel like that’s all that needs to be said here as far as predicting the winner. But if there is any counterargument in the world to a video with over a billion views, it is Beyonce sitting atop a police car sinking in a flooded street, so what do I know, really? 

Best Rock Video Nominees:

All Time Low – “Missing You”; Coldplay – “Adventure Of A Lifetime”; Fall Out Boy ft. Demi Lovato – “Irresistible”; twenty one pilots – “Heathens”; Panic! At The Disco – “Victorious”

This category is The Ghost From Awards Shows Past, I am convinced. 

Best Electronic Video Nominees:

Calvin Harris & Disciples, "How Deep Is Your Love"; 99 Souls ft. Destiny's Child & Brandy, "The Girl Is Mine"; Mike Posner, "I Took A Pill In Ibiza"; Afrojack, "SummerThing!"; The Chainsmokers ft. Daya, "Don't Let Me Down"

Still don't know why Mike Posner wanted so badly to impress Avicii. I'm more interested in answering that question than predicting this category.

Breakthrough Long Form Video

Nominees: Florence + The Machine – The Odyssey; Beyoncé – Lemonade; Justin Bieber – PURPOSE: The Movement; Chris Brown – Royalty; Troye Sivan – Blue Neighbourhood Trilogy

Again, Justin Bieber and Beyonce counteracting each other. This time, I think Beyonce's initial release of the Lemonade video exclusively on Tidal hurts her chances regardless of how emotional, masterful and transformative her hour-long video is. All of Bieber's PURPOSE: The Movement videos were uploaded on YouTube, which is completely accessible to almost everybody. Not to mention Bieber's videos mostly include only dancers or actors that are not him, which gives it more appeal. Bieber wins.

Best Art Direction

Nominees: Beyoncé – “Hold Up” (Production Designer: Jason Hougaard); Fergie – “M.I.L.F. $” (Production Designer: Alexander Delgado); Drake – “Hotline Bling” (Production Designer: Jeremy MacFarlane); David Bowie – “Blackstar” (Production Designer: Jan Houllevigue); Adele – “Hello” (Production Designer: Colombe Raby) 
Ziggy Stardust. Best Choreography Nominees: Beyoncé – “Formation” (Choreographer: Chris Grant, JaQuel Knight, Dana Foglia); Missy Elliott ft. Pharrell – “WTF (Where They From)” (Choreographer: Hi-Hat); Beyoncé – “Sorry” (Choreographer: Chris Grant, JaQuel Knight, Dana Foglia, Anthony Burrell, Beyoncé Knowles Carter); FKA Twigs – “M3LL155X” (Choreographers: Aaron Sillis, Benjamin Milan, Kenrick Sandy and FKA twigs); Florence + The Machine – “Delilah” (Choreographer: Holly Blakey)

I don't care what song it is, I (and, I'm willing to generalize, everybody on this planet) always want to dance like Beyonce. Category closed.

Best Direction

Nominees: Beyoncé – “Formation” (Director: Melina Matsoukas); Coldplay – “Up&Up” (Director: Vania Heymann, Gal Muggia); Adele – “Hello” (Director: Xavier Dolan); David Bowie – “Lazarus” (Director: Johan Renck); Tame Impala – “The Less I Know The Better” (Director: Canada)

Anybody else starting to feel like the only people in music are Beyonce and Adele, according to MTV?

Best Cinematography Nominees: Beyoncé – “Formation” (Cinematographer: Malik Sayeed); Adele – “Hello” (Cinematographer: André Turpin); David Bowie – “Lazarus” (Cinematographer: Crille Forsberg); Alesso – “I Wanna Know” (Cinematographer: Corey Jennings); Ariana Grande – “Into You” (Cinematographer: Paul Laufer)

All of these videos are pretty to look at so we're going to assume they're all worthy of winning. 

Best Editing

Nominees: Beyoncé – “Formation” (Editor: Jeff Selis); Adele – “Hello” (Editor: Xavier Dolan); Fergie – “M.I.L.F. $” (Editor: Vinnie Hobbs); David Bowie – “Lazarus” (Editor: Johan Söderberg); Ariana Grande – “Into You” (Editor: Hannah Lux Davis)

David Bowie's final gift to us all. At least, that’s how the storybooks would write it. But Beyonce’s “Lemonade” video and all of its subsequent parts are nominated for an Emmy, which makes it a formidable opponent against fate. That said, let Bowie have this one. 

Best Visual Effects

Nominees: Coldplay – “Up&Up” (VFX Editor: Vania Heymann); FKA Twigs – “M3LL155X” (VFX Editors: Lewis Saunders and Electric Theatre Collective); Adele – “Send My Love (To Your New Lover)” (VFX Editor: Jonathan Box, MPC); The Weeknd – “Can’t Feel My Face” (VFX Editor: Bryan Smaller); Zayn – “PILLOWTALK” (VFX Editor: David Smith) 

The best way to describe Zayn's "PILLOWTALK" video is trippy, and that's exactly what he wants you to feel. Given that this video was the first image(s) of Zayn's solo career, and it included what was at the time at least his lovely girlfriend and model Gigi Hadid and that made the video come across as real amid the extreme video game-like visual effects, I think he runs away with this. 

Song of Summer

Nominees: Calvin Harris ft. Rihanna, “This Is What You Came For”; The Chainsmokers ft. Halsey, “Closer”; Drake ft. Kyla & Wizkid, “One Dance”; Fifth Harmony ft. Fetty Wap, “All In My Head (Flex)”; Justin Timberlake, “Can’t Stop The Feeling”; Kent Jones, “Don’t Mind”; Major Lazer ft. Justin Bieber & MO, “Cold Water”; Nick Jonas ft. Ty Dolla $ign, “Bacon”; Selena Gomez, “Kill ‘Em With Kindness”; Sia, “Cheap Thrills” 

I haven't been able to get "Closer" out of my head since its July 29 release. 

Video of the Year

Nominees: Adele, "Hello"; Beyonce, "Formation"; Drake, "Hotline Bling"; Justin Bieber, "Sorry"; Kanye West, "Famous" 

I plead the fifth. Everybody gets a piece of the moon man. 
We will all be winners on Sunday night. Let the shenanigans begin. 

 

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