I just came back from my second trip to Las Vegas in 2013. I went to the sports book at the Aria and had a nice time and won some money and lost some money (see video above). I did better on my second trip, but I feel I should practice until the next time I'm in Vegas again to make some plays.
One thing in particular that didn't work out this trip was the Ted Baxter system (though I didn't use it).
The Jacksonville Jaguars, Oakland Raiders, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and St. Louis Rams were all double-digit underdogs and were all smoked by the favorites by enough points to cover the big spreads.
So now to the NFL Playoffs Odds this week and how I'd play them:
The Indianapolis Colts are favored over the Kansas City Chiefs by one point.
The Philadelphia Eagles are favored over the New Orleans Saints by three points.
The Cincinnati Bengals are favored over the San Diego Chargers by seven points.
The Green Bay Packers are favored over the San Francisco 49ers by three points.
In a simple 4-leg parlay, I'd take the Chiefs, Saints, Bengals and Packers.
Of the over/unders, the under (47) is only favored in the Packers-49ers game, I'd also take that in a parlay. Because it's projected to be below freezing for kickoff in the Eagles-Saints game, I'd take the under 54 points for a six-leg parlay. I'm not really too confident in picks besides the over/under, however.
To recap, I'd be betting this week:
4-leg: Chiefs, Saints, Bengals, Packers
6-leg: Chiefs, Saints, Bengals, Packers, Under Eagles-Saints, Under Packers-49ers
Straight Up: Under Eagles-Saints, Under Packers-49ers
Assuming a $10 bet on each, I'd be risking $40 on chances to win up to $607.80. Let's see what happens.
There's a brand new webseries focused on the NFL (and cold beer!) on YouTube: BLITZEDontap featuring Rebecca Zaccard and Travis Platt. BLITZEDontap is filmed weekly at a bar called The Den of Hollywood. Check out the latest episode (complete with a Flip Cup Start 'em Sit 'em game) above and make sure to subscribe, like, comment and follow the creators on Twitter (Travis, Rebecca), Facebook and G+. #getBLITZED
Tom Brady stayed at the top of the list with a great outing against the Texans on Monday Night Football. Brady has been the leader since Week 10 and has been able to hold off Redskins rookie QB Robert Griffin III. However, both are within striking distance of the all-time PIF (since 1992) season mark set by Aaron Rodgers last season (67.2).
The Top 5 did not see any changes since Week 12 but Cam Newton has started to get back on track and has made his way back into the Top 10 (he finished 5th as a rookie in 2011). Josh Freeman remained safely in the Top 10 this week and is approaching his 2010 PIF of 50.8 which was good for 4th that season.
Here's the updated standings (movement in brackets, rookies in bold):
1. Tom Brady, NE, 64.4 (unchanged)
2. Robert Griffin III, WAS, 63.3 (unchanged)
3. Matt Schaub, HOU, 54.3 (unchanged)
4. Aaron Rodgers, GB, 51.8 (unchanged)
5. Alex Smith, SF, 51.2 (unchanged)
6. Peyton Manning, DEN, 50 (up 2)
7. Cam Newton, CAR, 49 (up 7)
8. Russell Wilson, SEA, 47.8 (up 4)
9. Josh Freeman, TB, 46.9 (up 1)
10. Matt Ryan, ATL, 45.9 (up 4)
11. Sam Bradford, STL, 45.6 (up 4)
12. Matthew Stafford, DET, 45.1 (down 6)
13. Andy Dalton, CIN, 44.1 (unchanged)
14. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT, 44 (down 7)
15. Eli Manning, NYG, 43.2 (up 3)
16. Matt Hasselbeck, TEN, 43 (up 1)
17. Drew Brees, NO, 41.9 (down 6)
18. Kevin Kolb, ARI, 41 (up 1)
19. Joe Flacco, BAL, 40.4 (down 9)
20. Nick Foles, PHI, 38.7 (unranked)
21. Brandon Weeden, CLE, 38.5 (unchanged)
22. Tony Romo, DAL, 38.3 (up 2)
23. Christian Ponder, MIN, 38.1 (down 3)
24. Ryan Tannehill, MIA, 37.1 (down 3)
25. Ryan Fitzpatrick, BUF, 36.6 (up 1)
26. Michael Vick, PHI, 35.4 (down 3)
27. Blaine Gabbert, JAC, 32.5 (unchanged)
28. Andrew Luck, IND, 30.5 (unchanged)
29. Jay Cutler, CHI, 30 (up 1)
30. Chad Henne, 28.8 (unranked)
31. Philip Rivers, SD, 25.9 (up 1)
32. Carson Palmer, OAK, 24.7 (down 1)
33. Jake Locker, TEN, 21.8 (down 8)
34. Mark Sanchez, NYJ, 12.4 (down 1)
35. John Skelton, ARI, 9.8 (down 5)
36. Matt Cassel, KC, 6.5 (down 2)
Tom Brady has produced a touchdown on 6% of his touches this season which leads NFL QBs and that percentage is up from 5.2% four weeks ago. What has Brady ahead of the rookie RGIII is the lack of turnovers. Brady has produced 32 TDs while only turning the ball over four times (all INT).
Griffin is on pace to obliterate Cam Newton's rookie PIF record of 49.9. In fact, if Griffin's season ended today, his 63.3 PIF would rank 3rd all-time for a single season. RGIII's completion percentage (66.4%) is 5th in the NFL. Griffin leads NFL QBs in having the lowest percentage of negative plays (32). What this means is that RGIII throws an incompletion, gets sacked or fumbles (negative plays) on 32 percent of his plays.
Joe Flacco fell nine spots this week as he had two of his three lost fumbles on the season in the past two weeks to go along with two of his nine INT. Flacco also threw four TD over the past two games but Baltimore lost two close games in which Flacco giveaways led to points for the opposition.
John Skelton is last in TD percentage at 0.9 percent. All of the other QBs in the standings have produced TDs on at least 2.2 percent of their touches.
Chad Henne has a negative play on 50.7% of his touches in 2012, which is the worst among starting NFL QBs.
Matt Cassel, who was placed on I.R. with a hand injury, remains the only starting QB this season to throw an INT on a double-digit percentage of his incompletions (10.3).
Rookie Category Highlights/Lowlights:
Highest PIF: RGIII, 63.3 (2nd in NFL)
Lowest PIF: Andrew Luck, 30.5 (28th in NFL)
Lowest Negative Play %: RGIII, 32 (1st in NFL)
Highest Negative Play %: Andrew Luck, 46 (5th worst in NFL)
Highest TD %: RGIII, 4.9 (8th in NFL)
Lowest TD %: Ryan Tannehill, 2.2 (3rd worst in NFL)
Fewest Giveaways: Nick Foles, 4
Most Giveaways: Andrew Luck, 23 (Worst in NFL)
It's time to update the NFL Positive Impact Factor through 10 weeks of the 2012 NFL season. Tom Brady has taken over the top spot this week from rookie QB RGIII (rookies are in bold on this list). There was also plenty of movement in the Top 10 this week.
Here's the standings so far (movement in brackets):
1. Tom Brady, NE, 63.3 (up 2)
2. Robert Griffin III, WAS, 60.7 (down 1)
3. Aaron Rodgers, GB, 58.7 (up 1)
4. Matthew Stafford, DET, 55 (up 3)
5. Matt Schaub, HOU, 54.5 (up 1)
6. Matt Ryan, ATL, 54.2 (up 5)
7. Alex Smith, SF, 47.4 (up 5)
8. Sam Bradford, STL, 49.4 (up 5)
9. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT, 48.3 (down 7)
10. Peyton Manning, DEN, 48 (down 2)
11. Josh Freeman, TB, 47.5 (down 1)
12. Joe Flacco, BAL, 45.1 (up 3)
13. Drew Brees, NO, 45.1 (down 3)
14. Matt Hasselbeck, TEN, 43 (up 12)
15. Christian Ponder, MIN, 42.6 (up 5)
16. Russell Wilson, SEA, 42.5 (down 2)
17. Kevin Kolb, ARI, 41 (down 1)
18. Brandon Weeden, CLE, 40.5 (up 3)
19. Andy Dalton, CIN, 39.5 (up 4)
20. Eli Manning, NYG, 39.5 (down 11)
21. Ryan Tannehill, MIA, 38 (down 2)
22. Cam Newton, CAR, 37.6 (down 3)
23. Blaine Gabbert, JAC, 37.5 (up 2)
24. Michael Vick, PHI, 35.4 (up 4)
25. Andrew Luck, IND, 33.7 (up 2)
26. Tony Romo, DAL, 33.7 (up 4)
27. Jake Locker, TEN, 31.5 (up 4)
28. Carson Palmer, OAK, 30.3 (unchanged)
29. Ryan Fitzpatrick, BUF, 29.2 (down 7)
30. John Skelton, ARI, 26.4 (unranked)
31. Jay Cutler, CHI, 24.1 (down 7)
32. Philip Rivers, SD, 24.1 (unchanged)
33. Mark Sanchez, NYJ, 7.8 (down 4)
34. Matt Cassel, KC, 4.3 (down 1)
Tom Brady has claimed the top spot this week. Brady has produced a touchdown on 5.2% of his touches this season (7th among NFL QBs). What has Brady ahead of the rookie RGIII is the lack of turnovers. Brady has produced 20 TDs while only turning the ball over three times (all INT).
The top rookie signal caller only fell one spot to No. 2. Griffin's completion percentage has come down recently but he trails only Peyton Manning in lowest percentage of negative plays (31.6). RGIII throws an incompletion, gets sacked or fumbles (negative plays) on 32.5 percent of his plays. For future reference, RGIII is well ahead of the top two rookie PIFs since 1992 (Cam Newton, 49.9 in 2011; Matt Ryan, 49.6, 2008).
Ben Roethlisberger looked to be challenging for first place a few weeks ago but has seen his sterling 5:1 TD to turnover ratio fall to 2.8:1 after recent games. Three of Roethlisberger's four interceptions have come in his last five games and so have both of his lost fumbles this season.
Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers are the only QBs producing TDs at better than six percent of their touches (Brees, 6.5; Rodgers 6.4).
John Skelton is last in TD percentage at 1.1 percent.
Mark Sanchez has a negative play on 53% of his touches in 2012, which is the worst among starting NFL QBs.
Matt Cassel leads QBs with 19 total turnovers (12 INT, 7 lost fumbles). Cassel has 2.7 turnovers to every TD he has produced this season.