The last time the San Francisco 49ers lost in this position was December 8, 1996, a few weeks after Bill Clinton was elected US President and a few months after the Unabomber was arrested.
Since that day, the 49ers have been favored by 8.5 or more points 28 times and never lost once. It’s the situation they find themselves in again on the Week 5 NFL odds menu, as they sit as 10-point home chalk to visiting Buffalo.
“They did not cover the spread every time in those 28 games, but it does not bode well from a historical perspective for Buffalo fans looking to bet their team to win in Vegas Sunday,” said Jack Randall of OddsShark.com.
It’s one of many betting trends that office poolies, pick em contest experts and bettors are watching in Week 5. The Bills, of course, have not exactly been moneymakers as road warrior, covering the spread just twice in their past nine road games.
But that’s not the most lopsided trend of the week.
Cardinals -2 @ Rams +2
Thursday kicks off with the Cardinals in St. Louis, a spot where Arizona has won seven straight games. In fact, they have won 10 of 11 overall against the Rams, while earning an 8-3 ATS mark in the process. Mix in Arizona’s 11-2 SU mark in 13 recent games and the fact St. Louis has lost 16 of 20 SU within the NFC West and you have a lot of action on the visitors.
Eagles +3 @ Steelers -3
Philly has lucked its way to a 7-1 SU mark in eight recent games and the Steelers are 11-1 SU in 12 home games. But it’s the over-under in this game that has trends junkies intrigued. The past 10 times the Steelers have been favored by 4 or less points, the OVER has prevailed all 10 times. The line was 43 at most NFL sportsbooks tracked by OddsShark.com.
Browns +11 at NY Giants -11
The biggest underdog of the week is Cleveland, which fell to 1,000/1 odds to win the Super Bowl with its 0-4 start in 2012. They have lost nine straight road games, but beware the back-door cover here. Sure the Giants seek a rebound after their loss to the Eagles in Week 4, but the Browns are 5-0-1 ATS in their past six road games.
Broncos +7 at New England -7
The Patriots never lose at home in October. Well, not exactly true, they are 18-1 SU at home since 2002. And they host the Broncos in maybe the final Peyton Manning vs Tom Brady clash. New England is 8-1 ATS in their past nine games against AFC West teams, but are getting just 45 per cent of the wagering action, according to the OddsShark consensus data.
Texans -9 at Jets +9
Houston has never beaten the Jets, but oddsmakers are betting they will Monday Night. This line opened at -4.5 and has been bet all the way to -9 with the Darrelle Revis and Santonio Holmes injury news (get updates on this game via Twitter). Houston is riding a 13-3 ATS run as a favorite and a 7-1 ATS run in eight road games. The Jets, meanwhile, are 1-7 ATS in their past eight games as an underdog.