Special to OddsShark.com courtesy of Breeders Cup Odds
Drosselmeyer proved in 2011 that longshots can hit on horse racing's biggest stage.
The horse he beat in last year's Breeders' Cup Classic - Game On Dude - is the morning line favorite this time, but there is plenty of longshot value on Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup card at Santa Anita.
Among the nine championship races, headlined by the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic, are .
The Classic featured the biggest upset in Breeders’ Cup history when the European invader Arcangues paid a hefty $269.20 for a $2 win bet, despite being saddled by legendary trainer Andre Fabre and piloted by Jerry Bailey.
Last year’s Classic was won by Drosselmeyer, who returned $31.60 despite his Hall of Fame connections, trainer Bill Mott and jockey Mike Smith. Game On Dude, ran second at 14-1 last year, with 17-1 longshot Ruler On Ice checking in third.
The $2 exacta paid $444.80 and the $2 trifecta returned $5,427.40.
There are sure to be more big prices on this year’s lists, and here are four live longshots for Saturday you should include in your exotic bets:
Camp Victory (10-1) did not fire last out on the main track in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship (Grade 1), checking in sixth after bobbling at the start. The gelding put in a decent effort two back on poly in a third place finish in the Pat O'Brien (Grade 2) and back in June he won the Triple Bend (Grade 1) on the fake stuff at Hollywood Park in a very impressive effort. He has won 4 of 11 starts on turf in his career, and while he was seventh in this race last year, that came going five furlongs at Churchill Downs and the 6 1/2 here looks as if it will suit him better. One of his turf efforts that stand out was his nose loss in the San Simeon Handicap (Grade 3) last April over the turf course here. The winner was Regally ready, who won this race last year. Horses coming from off the pace do well over this turf course and we should catch a nice price.
Capo Bastone (15-1) was third behind Power Broker in the Front Runner, beaten seven lengths. The colt lost some ground when he bobbled coming out of the gate, came with a four wide bid, drifted inward slightly and missed the runner up spot by half a length. It was his first go around two turns and first start on dirt. The colt has worked smartly since his last effort and looks like he is going to move forward, and he is going to get overlooked at the betting windows.
Sum of the Parts (20-1) draws the rail which is probably not the best place to be here, but he owns solid early pace numbers and he may be able to get the jump on Trinniberg, who breaks from the nine post. Last out he took the field gate to wire to win the Phoenix (Grade 3) over poly, which looks like his preferred distance. This surface is kinder to speed than Keeneland and that may carry him far here at a big price.
Nonios (20-1) put in a good effort in a runner up finish behind Game On Dude in the Awesome Again, which was his first start in stakes company against older. Since switching from the fake stuff he ran a solid second behind Paynter in the Haskell (Grade 1) and then came up short in the Travers (Grade 1) in a fifth place finish, but was beaten less than four lengths. The Jerry Hollendorfer trainee is getting plenty of buzz as he has been a monster in the mornings, popping a bullet work on Oct. 24. Three year olds have fared well in the Classic, winning nine times, the last being Raven's Pass in 2008. I think his price is going to shrink a few points off the 20-1 morning line but still is going to offer good value in the exotics.
Michael’s two day Breeders’ Cup Package includes his selections, analysis, fair odds line, and wagering recommendations for every race on the two-day championship event from Santa Anita Park on Nov. 2-3. [ Buy now at Turf n sport ]
The Breeders’ Cup offers 15 championship races over two days, bringing together the best top horses, trainers, and jockeys from around the world, this year to compete at Santa Anita Park.